← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 77% | 72% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 16% | 6.84 | value: +9% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 8% | 12% | 11.67 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1169.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.01 | 1874.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.45 | 5.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 31.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 2.27 |
| squad age | 27.31 | — |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |