← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.98 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 53' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 56' | 🟨 | Joris van Overeem · AZ |
| 58' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 67' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ridgeciano Haps · AZ |
| 79' | 🟨 | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 987.00 | 956.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 6.03 |
| elo | 1530.46 | 1594.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.34 | -12.90 |
| eye test v1 | 2.05 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.52 |
| league points | 37.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.43 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.95 | 25.04 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |