← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 25% | 29% | 3.93 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Ramon Leeuwin · FC Utrecht |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 65' | ⚽ | Nacer Barazite · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jos Hooiveld · FC Twente '65 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Richairo Zivkovic · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 648.00 | 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 3.75 |
| elo | 1629.48 | 1565.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.99 | 5.10 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| league points | 50.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.45 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |