← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 83% | 86% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 8.33 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 5% | 4% | 20.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1855.12 | 1461.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.36 | -8.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 65.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 1.14 |
| state index | 1.63 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |