← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 70% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.24 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 12% | 9% | 8.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
| 39' | ⚽ | Daryl Werker · Roda JC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ard Van Peppen · Roda JC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tom van Hyfte · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daryl Werker · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 951.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.92 | 1.97 |
| elo | 1580.10 | 1417.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.02 | -1.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 42.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.90 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |