← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 50% | 50% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 24% | 26% | 4.03 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 14' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 17' | 🟨 | Stefano Marzo · SC Heerenveen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Luciano Slagveer · SC Heerenveen |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 311.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.32 |
| elo | 1613.03 | 1542.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.59 | -41.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| league points | 45.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.38 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.95 | 24.29 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |