← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 77% | 77% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.43 | fair |
| NEC win | 7% | 10% | 13.16 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Wojciech Golla · AFC Ajax |
| 8' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 32' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ferdi Kadıoğlu · NEC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 72' | 🟨 | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 78' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2108.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 3.06 |
| elo | 1430.25 | 1844.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.51 | 11.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 1.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.77 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 28.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.38 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| squad age | — | 21.24 |
| state index | -0.82 | 1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |