← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 43% | 36% | 2.27 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 31% | 38% | 3.19 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟥 | Elvis Manu · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 16' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 21' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 22' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sander Fischer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 72' | 🟨 | Justin Hoogma · Heracles |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 432.00 | 981.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.37 |
| elo | 1398.11 | 1515.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.64 | -13.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| league points | 23.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.17 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.63 | 24.91 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |