← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 40% | 38% | 2.43 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 32% | 32% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.56 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 21' | ⚽ | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 23' | ⚽ | Mike Havenaar · ADO Den Haag |
| 47' | ⚽ | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 64' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mike Havenaar · ADO Den Haag |
| 86' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1162.00 | 250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.13 |
| elo | 1453.15 | 1539.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.80 | -2.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 28.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |