← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 48% | 52% | 2.04 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 24% | 22% | 3.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Koolwijk · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 23' | ⚽ | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
| 44' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 48' | ⚽ | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 87' | ⚽ | Martin Pusic · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 89' | 🟨 | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 827.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.30 | 1.64 |
| elo | 1407.65 | 1401.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.31 | 33.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 28.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| skill v1 | -1.95 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |