← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Thu, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 67% | 54% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 28% | 5.18 | value: +47% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 14% | 18% | 6.84 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 248.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1559.12 | 1861.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.33 | -1.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 41.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | — |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 2.29 |
| state index | 0.16 | 1.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |