← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Thu, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 41% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 31% | 29% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.46 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gyliano Van Velzen · Roda JC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Mikhael Rosheuvel · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 309.00 | 1405.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 3.84 |
| elo | 1406.29 | 1500.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.17 | 15.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 23.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.11 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -1.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |