← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 50% | 43% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.54 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 22% | 28% | 4.41 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 25' | ⚽ | Obbi Oulare · Willem II Tilburg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mike Havenaar · ADO Den Haag |
| 59' | 🟨 | Thom Haye · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 308.00 | 1159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.64 |
| elo | 1474.61 | 1440.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.20 | 23.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.72 |
| league points | 33.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.89 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |