← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 44% | 44% | 2.24 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Kevin Diks · Vitesse |
| 43' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 51' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 56' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 56' | 🟥 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 71' | 🟨 | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kevin Diks · Vitesse |
| 86' | 🟥 | Kevin Diks · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 978.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.51 |
| elo | 1509.34 | 1587.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.31 | 3.44 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 34.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |