← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 74% | 73% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.09 | fair |
| AZ win | 10% | 11% | 10.20 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ridgeciano Haps · AZ |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 60' | 🟨 | Joris van Overeem · AZ |
| 71' | ⚽ | Davinson Sánchez · AFC Ajax |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 88' | ⚽ | Amin Younes · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 308.00 | 947.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 5.66 |
| elo | 1839.15 | 1585.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.60 | -13.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.55 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.52 |
| league points | 66.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 21.92 | — |
| state index | 1.34 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |