← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 46% | 53% | 2.11 | value: +12% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 31' | 🟨 | Kevin Vermeulen · SBV Excelsior |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · SBV Excelsior |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Jurgen Matheij · FC Utrecht |
| 53' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 55' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 65' | 🟨 | Giovanni Troupee · FC Utrecht |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 87' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 246.00 | 643.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 2.27 |
| elo | 1410.14 | 1620.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.36 | 13.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.86 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 25.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.68 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |