← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 64% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.42 | fair |
| NEC win | 14% | 13% | 6.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Gregor Breinburg · NEC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ferdi Kadıoğlu · NEC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kevin Diks · Vitesse |
| 76' | 🟨 | Wojciech Golla · NEC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Arnold Kruiswijk · Vitesse |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 305.00 | 2102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.59 |
| elo | 1582.46 | 1443.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.25 | -23.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 39.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.04 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |