← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 64% | 68% | 1.53 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.77 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 16% | 14% | 6.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Xandro Schenk · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 51' | 🟨 | Yaw Yeboah · FC Twente '65 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sam Hendriks · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jeroen van der Lely · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 79' | 🟨 | Stefan Thesker · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 244.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 3.13 |
| elo | 1575.55 | 1370.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.79 | -26.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 41.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.74 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.51 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |