← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 41% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ognjen Gnjatic · Roda JC |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Martin Milec · Roda JC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 62' | ⚽ | Mike Havenaar · ADO Den Haag |
| 87' | ⚽ | Guyon Fernandez · ADO Den Haag |
| 89' | ⚽ | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1156.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.71 |
| elo | 1426.28 | 1420.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.79 | 0.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.85 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |