← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 56% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.15 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 21% | 18% | 4.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 26' | ⚽ | Django Warmerdam · PEC Zwolle |
| 31' | 🟨 | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 34' | ⚽ | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1400.00 | 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.71 |
| elo | 1520.39 | 1421.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.07 | 14.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 30.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.02 | 26.15 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.11 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |