← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 61% | 64% | 1.61 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.09 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 16% | 14% | 6.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wout Brama · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ | Richairo Zivkovic · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 640.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.59 |
| elo | 1629.21 | 1498.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.05 | 28.51 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.73 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| league points | 44.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.22 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.95 | 25.92 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |