← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 70% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.37 | value: +8% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 12% | 10% | 7.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 821.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1420.75 | 1858.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.59 | -2.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 28.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | — |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.26 |
| state index | 0.07 | 1.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |