← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.84 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · Heracles |
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 9' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jeremiah St. Juste · SC Heerenveen |
| 20' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 26' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 28' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jeremiah St. Juste · SC Heerenveen |
| 31' | 🟥 | Jeremiah St. Juste · SC Heerenveen |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 974.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.35 |
| elo | 1492.87 | 1532.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.75 | -35.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.37 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |