← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 42% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 32% | 31% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.64 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Pedro Chirivella · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 5' | ⚽ | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 17' | 🟨 | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sander Fischer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 79' | 🟨 | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 83' | ⚽ | Django Warmerdam · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 412.00 | 1387.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.50 |
| elo | 1383.35 | 1491.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.07 | 11.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 20.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.04 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |