← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 74% | 79% | 1.32 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 17% | 11% | 5.67 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 9% | 10% | 10.68 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (og) | Kenny Tete · SBV Excelsior |
| 32' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 67' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fredy · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 230.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 2.95 |
| elo | 1397.85 | 1840.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.04 | -11.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 2.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.85 |
| league points | 23.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.38 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.40 |
| squad age | — | 20.76 |
| state index | -0.40 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |