← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 69% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.34 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 12% | 11% | 7.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Dabney dos Santos · AZ |
| 13' | ⚽ | Dabney dos Santos · AZ |
| 20' | 🟨 | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 34' | ⚽ | Joris van Overeem · AZ |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 60' | ⚽ | Fred Friday · AZ |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tyronne Ebuehi · ADO Den Haag |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joris van Overeem · AZ |
| 80' | 🟨 | Stijn Wuytens · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 930.00 | 1142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.35 | 2.57 |
| elo | 1579.55 | 1435.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.41 | -0.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.44 | 0.84 |
| league points | 38.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.85 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |