← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 49% | 47% | 2.01 | fair |
| Heracles win | 26% | 27% | 3.79 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Ryan Sanusi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 38' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · Heracles |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ryan Sanusi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 53' | ⚽ | Martin Pusic · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 56' | 🟨 | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mart Dijkstra · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 73' | ⚽ | Martin Pusic · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 89' | ⚽ | Joey Pelupessy · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 807.00 | 960.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.45 |
| elo | 1403.77 | 1509.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.27 | -0.96 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.19 |
| skill v1 | -2.08 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |