← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 45% | 47% | 2.19 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.49 | fair |
| NEC win | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 35' | 🟨 | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 37' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 72' | 🟨 | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2087.00 | 626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.47 |
| elo | 1457.37 | 1599.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.81 | -4.37 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 28.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |