← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Earl, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 26% | 25% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Ruben Jenssen · FC Groningen |
| 54' | ⚽ | Obbi Oulare · Willem II Tilburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jordy Croux · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 229.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.73 |
| elo | 1546.20 | 1495.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.59 | 49.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 28.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.23 | 26.13 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |