← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 38% | 43% | 2.58 | value: +11% |
| Roda JC win | 34% | 27% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Fredrik Jensen · FC Twente '65 |
| 43' | ⚽ | Fredrik Jensen · FC Twente '65 |
| 77' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 289.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.75 |
| elo | 1434.70 | 1561.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.10 | 4.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 23.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.46 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |