← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 42% | 40% | 2.34 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 30% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.43 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · Willem II Tilburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 70' | 🟨 | Django Warmerdam · PEC Zwolle |
| 78' | 🟨 | Dico Koppers · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thom Haye · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 284.00 | 1380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.31 |
| elo | 1464.83 | 1505.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.91 | 35.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.08 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |