← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 40% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Thanasis Papazoglou · Roda JC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ard Van Peppen · Roda JC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Etienne Reijnen · FC Groningen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tom van Hyfte · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 284.00 | 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.84 |
| elo | 1416.67 | 1548.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.14 | -19.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.12 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |