← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 65% | 68% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.70 | fair |
| AZ win | 15% | 14% | 6.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 13' | 🟨 | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 59' | ⚽ | Dirk Kuyt · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 62' | ⚽ | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 681.00 | 923.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 3.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 4.25 |
| elo | 1775.64 | 1607.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.71 | -40.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.50 |
| league points | 63.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 1.52 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 24.29 |
| state index | 1.27 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |