← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 76% | 74% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 20% | 6.37 | value: +25% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 9% | 6% | 11.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Amin Younes · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 284.00 | 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 5.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.75 |
| elo | 1833.07 | 1565.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.03 | -1.47 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.30 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.73 |
| league points | 59.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 1.52 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 20.74 | — |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |