← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.63 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 26' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 46' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wout Brama · FC Utrecht |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kevin Conboy · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 953.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.25 |
| elo | 1498.34 | 1611.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.94 | 15.17 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 28.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.64 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |