← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 76% | 80% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 10% | 6.54 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 9% | 10% | 11.24 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 404.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1385.98 | 1852.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.64 | 6.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 20.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.50 | 1.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |