← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 26% | 32% | 3.72 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 15' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 32' | 🟨 | Milan Massop · SBV Excelsior |
| 33' | 🟨 | Stefano Marzo · SC Heerenveen |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 42' | ⚽ | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 48' | ⚽ | Milan Massop · SBV Excelsior |
| 77' | ⚽ | Luciano Slagveer · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 222.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.20 |
| elo | 1374.19 | 1561.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.55 | -24.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.48 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.34 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |