← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 42% | 43% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | fair |
| NEC win | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gregor Breinburg · NEC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tyronne Ebuehi · ADO Den Haag |
| 72' | ⚽ | Mike Havenaar · ADO Den Haag |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ferdi Kadıoğlu · NEC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Robert Zwinkels · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed Rayhi · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1134.00 | 2080.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.22 |
| elo | 1425.66 | 1466.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.49 | -28.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.12 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |