← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 57% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.78 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 17% | 19% | 5.72 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 34' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 40' | ⚽ | Arnold Kruiswijk · Vitesse |
| 43' | 🟨 | Craig Goodwin · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marvelous Nakamba · Vitesse |
| 61' | ⚽ | Guram Kashia · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 282.00 | 799.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 3.51 |
| elo | 1576.42 | 1412.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.39 | 23.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |