← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 66% | 72% | 1.47 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.61 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 13% | 10% | 7.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 33' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 35' | 🟨 | Guyon Fernandez · ADO Den Haag |
| 36' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 40' | ⚽ | Richairo Zivkovic · FC Utrecht |
| 54' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tyronne Ebuehi · ADO Den Haag |
| 62' | 🟨 | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Venema · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 613.00 | 1128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.49 |
| elo | 1617.49 | 1419.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.24 | -29.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 40.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.75 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.67 | -1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |