← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 69% | 75% | 1.41 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 19% | 13% | 5.02 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 11% | 12% | 8.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Mathias Pogba · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rick Karsdorp · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 71' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 73' | 🟨 | Roy Kortsmit · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 88' | 🟨 | Karim El Ahmadi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 794.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 8.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 10.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.59 |
| elo | 1395.33 | 1761.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.68 | 37.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| league points | 22.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.63 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.66 | 1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |