← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 38% | 41% | 2.59 | value: +7% |
| Heracles win | 34% | 30% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | André Fomitschow · NEC |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 27' | ⚽ | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Michael Heinloth · NEC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · Heracles |
| 43' | 🟨 | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Justin Hoogma · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2074.00 | 947.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.26 |
| elo | 1468.23 | 1529.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.02 | 14.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.17 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 23.96 | 25.10 |
| state index | -1.00 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |