← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 65% | 65% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.48 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 13% | 15% | 7.26 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 82' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | 🟥 | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amin Younes · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 1.83 |
| elo | 1541.78 | 1855.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.11 | 4.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.90 |
| league points | 27.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.42 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | — | 21.72 |
| state index | -0.46 | 1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |