← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 70% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.17 | value: +15% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 12% | 13% | 8.39 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ (og) | Warner Hahn · AZ |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 62' | 🟨 | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ben Rienstra · AZ |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ron Vlaar · AZ |
| 74' | 🟨 | Guus Til · AZ |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 916.00 | 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 5.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.40 | 1.87 |
| elo | 1594.12 | 1367.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.50 | -30.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| league points | 37.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.79 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.69 | -1.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |