← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 38% | 38% | 2.54 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 35% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.66 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 18' | ⚽ | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 54' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Vitesse |
| 55' | ⚽ | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1372.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 0.85 |
| elo | 1489.08 | 1593.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.61 | 1.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |