← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 54% | 58% | 1.81 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 20% | 17% | 4.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Darryl Lachman · FC Twente '65 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Jordy Croux · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 215.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.95 |
| elo | 1560.04 | 1470.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.07 | 33.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.84 |
| league points | 35.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.21 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |