← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 67% | 71% | 1.46 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.88 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 13% | 11% | 7.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Sam Hendriks · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 61' | 🟨 | Xandro Schenk · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 65' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
| 70' | ⚽ | Luciano Slagveer · SC Heerenveen |
| 89' | ⚽ | Leon de Kogel · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 275.00 | 396.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.05 |
| elo | 1583.99 | 1394.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.83 | 6.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.60 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| league points | 36.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.79 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.17 | 25.22 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |