← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 47% | 51% | 2.06 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 26% | 24% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 52' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 59' | 🟨 | Sander Duits · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 59' | 🟨 | Elvis Manu · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 80' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · Vitesse |
| 88' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darren Maatsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 391.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.25 |
| elo | 1389.31 | 1583.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.74 | -7.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.43 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |