← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 59% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.27 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 18% | 17% | 5.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 40' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ryan Thomas · PEC Zwolle |
| 75' | 🟨 | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 81' | ⚽ | Fred Friday · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rens Van Eijden · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 909.00 | 1366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 4.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.17 | 2.32 |
| elo | 1598.75 | 1484.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.61 | 15.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| league points | 36.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |