← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 83% | 84% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 11% | 8.17 | fair |
| Heracles win | 5% | 5% | 17.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 25' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 40' | 🟨 | Joey Pelupessy · Heracles |
| 54' | 🟨 | André Onana · AFC Ajax |
| 54' | 🟨 | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 56' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 60' | ⚽ | Davinson Sánchez · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 270.00 | 940.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 5.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.21 |
| elo | 1852.74 | 1516.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.30 | 10.94 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.10 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.93 | 0.68 |
| league points | 55.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.22 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 22.02 | — |
| state index | 1.37 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |